Greece Nears Euro Exit

Posted on May 13, 2012 by OptionsClick

The heavily beleaguered Greece took a step closer to a devastating exit from the Eurozone as it’s leaders still struggle to form a government. For the first time, European central bankers have been openly discussing the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro.

Germany’s top banker, Jens Weidmann, said it was up to the Greeks to make a decision, but if they failed to keep to their bailout commitments, then Greece would receive no further aid. His Irish Republic counterpart Patrick Honohan, said a Greek departure from the Euro would be damaging but not essentially fatal to the single currency. Meanwhile, Per Jansson, deputy head of Sweden’s central bank, was quoted by Bloomberg on Friday as saying that central bankers across Europe had started to discuss the possible notion of a Greek exit from the 17 member stated eurozone and how the consequences shall be handled.

Greece is set to make a final attempt at forming a government today (Sunday) but if no new government is formed then a new election will be required, with opinion polls suggesting Syriza – a leftist, anti-bailout party – will gain the most. Syriza has run on out rightly rejecting the terms of the latest EC- EU-IMF bailout, which requires strict austerity measures in return for 130 billion euros worth of loans.

The events in Greece should be closely followed as they markets on edge and the events of which will have significant impact upon the markets when they open later tonight. Also to be followed is the stocks situation in the US – U.S. stocks finished mostly in negative territory at the end of the week, dropping on reports that JP Morgan lost $2 billion in a failed trading strategy The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.27% on Friday, the S&P 500 index was down 0.34% while the Nasdaq Composite index finished up 0.01%.

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Euro Sell Off Takes Break

Posted on May 10, 2012 by OptionsClick

Investor concerns over the Euro and the growing political debate in much maligned Greece were put to one side s investors took a break from the euro sell off of the last few days. Even though troubles appear to be mounting in Greece as 1 billion euros of bail out money is being held back by the eurozones rescue fund, investors halted the slide of the Euro in Asian trading. The 1 billion euros will be given to Greece later “depending on the financing needs of Greece”, the board of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) announced yesterday with Eurozone finance ministers meeting on Monday to consider whether or not to disburse the remaining 1 billion euros from a 4.2 billion rescue package.

Investor fears that the leftist Syriza party, which is attempting to piece together a government, will continue calling for the rejection of austerity measures s part of the terms and conditions of the bailout money and ultimately take the country towards a default and out of the Eurozone altogether. The EUR/USD was up 0.20%, still trading below the 1.300 barrier at 1.2953 whilst the EUR/JPY reached 103.28, increasing 0.31%, up from a low of 102.91 and from a high of 103.29.

Meanwhile, this morning in asian trading, it was announced by the worlds 2nd largest economy, China, that its export and import growth slowed down for the month of April, increasing fears of a sharp slowdown in its economy and sparking calls for easing of the monetary policy. Exports increased by 4.9% in April year on year, falling from the 8.9% annual growth witnessed in March, indicating that global demand may be slowing. At the same time, imports increased by just 0.3% year on year, falling sharply from the 5.3% in March, a sign of the fall in domestic demand.

Today is going to be a busy and volatile day when European markets open. Lots of mixed and important data released throughout the day so make sure you stick glued to the news and the charts.

Fears for Euro Mount

Posted on May 9, 2012 by OptionsClick

Investor fears for the beleaguered Euro continued to mount in Asian trading this morning as the leader of Greece’s Syriza bloc announced the coalition he is trying to form to run the Greek government will be based on the tearing up of the terms and conditions of the bailout received from the IMF and EU. With just 3 days to reach a deal, the coalition seems to be based around the rejection of the budget cuts and austerity measures as part of the bail out deal. Greece received two trenches of bailout funds – totaling 240 billion euros, for which Greece agreed to make large cuts to pensions and the payroll, raise taxes and cut thousands of public sector jobs. The next tranche of funds is due in June, but this is under serious doubt.

The left wing coalition in Greece might not pose as big threat as the new socialist president of France – Francois Hollande, but it is in stark contrast to what was announced in Portugal yesterday. Having agreed a 78 billion euro bailout deal with the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund last year, Portugal declared that is scrapping 4 of its 14 national holidays as part of its austerity measures. Portugal has already slashed public sector wages and increase taxes in an attempt to cut its budget deficit and tackle its economic crisis. This, however, was not enough to allay investor concerns over the Euro, which saw the single currency hit new lows against the USD and GBP. German production data prevented the euro from falling too far with German industrial output jumping to 2.8% in March, much more than the expected the 0.8% increase, having declined 0.3% in February. At time of writing the EUR/USD was down 0.23% trading at 1.2976 having passed the big psychological 1.30 barrier.

Today, eyes will remain on Europe as Germany announces their trade balance at 7am GMT and 5 year debt auctions at 10.30am GMT. In commodities, US Crude Oil and Gasoline stock piles are declared at 3.30pm GMT.

Euro Hangover Subdues Markets

Posted on May 8, 2012 by OptionsClick

The political elections in Europe that saw both Greek and French voters reject tougher austerity measures in favour of increased spending to boost growth has left the markets subdued with investors consolidating positions or tentatively investing in the USD, which in itself, is still suffering from the hangover of Fridays disappointing jobs data release. Indeed, the announcement of only 115,000 new jobs created in April and unemployment still above 8% in the US is the only reason why the USD hasn’t soared against the Euro. Despite opening slightly up in Asian trading, the EUR/USD was down 0.15%, trading at 1.3031 at time of writing (4.21am GMT) with the pair likely to test the support level of 1.2956 and the resistance level of May 4th’s 1.3178. The euro dropped as low as $1.295 in trading yesterday, its lowest since January, later, and fell to three year lows against the GBP.

Francois Hollande is the first socialist president in France since Francois Mitterand was elected in 1981. The political promises by Hollande – increase spending, reduce retirement age, increase the amount of teachers and cutting energy bills were very similar to Mitterand’s election promises. The result was the French Franc losing about half its value against the USD. As the economy of France makes up about 20% of the 17 member state Eurozone economy – there is the very real prospect that the already very brittle Euro could devalue by 20%. Also worrying investors is Hollande’s pledge for the ECB to buy government debt and ramp up deficit spending – the same program which put Europe in the mess it is currently in.

For the investors, Stocks have typically risen historically when there is more government spending, and this looks like being no exception. The DAX finished 0.12% higher yesterday at 6569.48 whilst Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.65%, valued at 9173.50 at time of writing.

Today, all eyes will be on ECB President Draghi speaking at 1.30pm GMT and then FOMC Fisher speaking at 4.45pm GMT. However, look for a bit of a boost to the EUR when Germany is expected to announce positive industrial figures at 11am GMT.

MARKET CLICK – MONDAY, MAY 7 2012

Posted on May 7, 2012 by OptionsClick

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LATEST TRADING HEADLINES

Asian markets down on EU concerns. Same expected in EU markets as Sarcozy defeat implies austerity not working.

Euro slides, some believe in reaction to Presidential election results in France.

Oil trading lower and is expected to drop further and test $90/barrel.

GBP at 2.5 year high vs. major currencies on EU worries.

ASSET	CHANGE	LAST	TREND	PLATFORM
NIKKEI	- 261.11	9,119.14	DOWN	HIGH/LOW
S&P 500	- 22.47	1,369.10	UP	HIGH/LOW
NASDAQ	- 67.96	2,956.34	UP	HIGH/LOW
DOW	- 168.32	13,038.27	UP	HIGH/LOW
OIL	- 1.40	$97.09	DOWN	HIGH/LOW
GOLD	- 6.10	$1,639.10	UP	HIGH/LOW
EUR/USD	- 0.0019	1.3007	DOWN	HIGH/LOW
USD/JPY	+ 0.07	79.82	DOWN	ONE TOUCH
GOOG	- 14.05	596.97	UP	ONE TOUCH
AAPL	- 16.57	565.25	UP	HIGH/LOW

HOW CAN I MAXIMIZE MY PROFIT THIS WEEK AT OPTIONSCLICK?

WHAT SHOULD I TRADE?

USD/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, OIL, US STOCKS AND INDICES.WHAT ARE THE TRENDS?
DROPS FOR OIL, DOWNWARD TREND FOR EU STOCKS AND INDICES.WHAT PLATFORM SHOULD I USE?
USE ONE TOUCH or RANGEPLATFORMS FOR BEST RESULTS THIS WEEK.WHAT ELSE SHOULD I KNOW?
PAY ATTENTION TO OIL, CURRENCIES AS IT REACTS TO GREECE AND FRANCE ELECTIONS.