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Housing Markets in the US Are They Really That Bad?

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Binary Options News : September 27, 2012

Housing Markets in the US Are They Really That Bad?

This week in the US there is a raft of housing data that is scheduled to be released with S&P Case-Shiller Composite 20 house price index released early in the week followed by new home sales and then finishing off the week is pending home sales data. Most would agree that the data that has been coming through of late has given some signs that maybe there is some improvement in the US housing markets.

S&P House Price Index of September 23, 2012

Firstly, looking at the S&P CS Composite 20 HPI which looks at the change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas now looks to be trending higher after bottoming out in March of 2009 at -19.00% it then peaked in July 2010 at 4.60% with the aid of US government intervention after all government interventions finished the US housing markets looked to be in trouble again and heading back south but managed to hold themselves to only slip down to -4.60% and now look set to turn positive again.

US New Home Sales chart of september 23 2012

US new home sales have been a laggard but are showing some improvements versus the 2009 – 2011 slump. The housing market is a long way off getting back to the 2007 peaks but in this current cycle it is the most optimistic it has been in face of the huge headwinds faced by the US home buyers. Year to date new home sales have added up to 2.78m that has beaten 2011 and 2010 figures for the same eight months to August but falls short of the 2009 2.886m new home sales and is well below the 7.22m and 4.37m new home sales in 2007 and 2008 respectively. The change in the pending home sales figures highlights the volatility in the housing market as it measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold markets are expecting this to fall this current release.

Whether one believes that the housing market is in a recovery or not there is enough free money out in the system with interest rates being held low at least until 2015 that can help simulate parts of this heavily beaten up market but no question there still lies some rocky roads before the US home owners can really ring the bell, but no question from a technical stand point the markets are definitely starting to give a “foundation” to build a recovery.

According to reports by the Mortgage Bankers Association delinquency rate for mortgage loans has risen slightly but will be the barometer to watch to understand if the recovery is sustainable. Should the slowdown in the economy and Europe continue to pressure growth then this too has the potential to impact this recovery that looks to be underway.

 

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily those of OptionsClick, blog.optionsclick.com, OptionsClick.com or any of its staff. The contents of this article are in no way intended to be advice or any other form of counsel for any trader of binary options or any other investor. Please be advised: Investing of any kind always carries a relative risk. As with any market trading, it is always possible to lose your investment. Always be sure to do your own research, seek professional advice, and make your own, well-educated decisions when it comes to financial investments.

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Equities Treasuries Commodities and Currencies

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Binary Options News : September 10, 2012

mario monti knows how to sweeten the dealEquities Treasuries Commodies and Currencies

Equities

Asian markets have opened the trading week and have traded mostly higher the real direction on the week only coming from the US and Europe as markets head into an important week where central bank intervention and stimulus will be tested, Hong Kong on Monday was up 0.23% to 19,848 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2134. The Nikkei fell 0.03% at 8869, the KOSPI fell 0.25% to 1924, and the ASX 200 was up 0.2% to 4333.

As European markets open this week all eyes will be all about the German Constitutional Court ruling that is pending and whether markets believe what the ECB is doing can solve the European Crisis on Friday the DAX was up 0.7% to 7214, Eurostoxx 50  up 0.5% to 2538 and the FTSE was up 0.3% at 5794 on Friday’s close. European gains where a continuation of Thursday’s ECB announcement of outright monetary transactions (OMT).

US equities also managed to punch out more gains on Friday the DJIA +0.1% to 13307 having already taken out the 2008 levels the next key levels look to be the October 2007 record levels of 14198, the S&P500 +0.5% to 1437 this is the highest level on equities since May 2008 where the S&P500 cash was trading 1440.24 pre 2008 crisis levels. All market eyes will be on the Fed this week for Thursday’s outcome.

Treasuries and Commodities

As Treasury open the week on what some tip to be a critical week as markets await the Fed’s action for possible further QE. Treasuries closed on Friday at 1.661 on the US10 Year Treasury Notes. With European bond yields crashing on the news of the OMT from the ECB – Italian 10 years trading back down to the 5.03% from previously being around the 5.847% at the end of August and the Spanish 10 year yields are down from the August closing highs of 6.86% to 6.03% on Friday’s close. Gold moved higher on hopes of US QE it was up 2% at 1737.60 also copper has been rally that the measure from the US will stimulate the world’s largest economy New York Copper closed on Friday up 3.7% to $3.64 /lbs.

Currencies

Dollar Index sank on the news of new initiatives from the ECB and prospects of another round of QE from the Fed which lead it to fall again 1.1% to 80.234. Eyes now turn to the Fed at its September 13 meeting. EUR/USD rallied 1.5% overnight to 1.2818 as the markets took a bid from pending US QE.   The Pound also was down 0.2% at 1.5992. Yen bounced off Fridays lows to be up 0.1% to 78.265 in the Asian session. AUD/USD has traded down 0.4% in the Asian session to trade down to 1.0343.

Economic Outlook

Stimulus is still the word with the talk on US FOMC likely to pull the trigger on QE on September 13. Market concerns over the German Constitutional Court ruling that is pending this week. This week will be critical to see if market can continue to believe that the ECB action will be sufficient enough to solve or improve the current EU crisis.  Monday: China (Tentative) Trade Balance, EUR Sentix Investor Confidence.

 

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily those of OptionsClick, blog.optionsclick.com, OptionsClick.com or any of its staff. The contents of this article are in no way intended to be advice or any other form of counsel for any trader of binary options or any other investor. Please be advised: Investing of any kind always carries a relative risk. As with any market trading, it is always possible to lose your investment. Always be sure to do your own research, seek professional advice, and make your own, well-educated decisions when it comes to financial investments.

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Gold and Silver Hit Highs

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Binary Options News : September 4, 2012

binary options news caricature of mario draghi in a euro man comic

Gold and Silver Hit Highs

Asian trading this morning saw the continued rise in the precious metals markets as speculation of global stimulus measures received assistance from a glut of negative PMI being released across the world and credit ratings agency Moody’s lowering its outlook for the European Union’s AAA credit rating to ‘negative.

Commodities

A raft of global data in key economies such as the US, China, Japan and the EU has strengthened the argument for more central bank measures to boost growth. This has led to increased demand for the precious metals with Gold reaching its highest price level in nearly 6 months and Silver attaining its highest price since April 2012. Gold normally trades inversely to the USD (the currency it is sold in) and has been helped by the heavily weakened US Dollar which is under pressure after more stimulus talk from the Fed on Friday. At time of writing (5.18am GMT) Gold is 0.57% higher valued at 1694.85 a troy ounce and Silver is trading 2.55% higher at 32.243 an ounce.

Europe

Moody’s – the credit ratings agency lowered its credit outlook for Europe and issued a  warning that the AAA rating could be downgraded in the future after ECB President Mario Draghi told officials he would be comfortable buying three year government bonds to lower borrowing costs for nations in financial distress. Germany, France, Netherlands, and the UK which account for around 45% of the EU’s budget revenue – were all given negative outlooks by Moodys earlier this year – and Moody’s warned that if the credit ratings of these member states are to be downgraded, it could have a negative effect of the overall rating of the EU.

Outlook

Today, investor focus will be firmly on what comes out of the various meetings being held in Europe today. President Herman Van Rompuy is travels to Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti entertains French President Francois Hollande in Rome.

 

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily those of OptionsClick, blog.optionsclick.com, OptionsClick.com or any of its staff. The contents of this article are in no way intended to be advice or any other form of counsel for any trader of binary options or any other investor. Please be advised: Investing of any kind always carries a relative risk. As with any market trading, it is always possible to lose your investment. Always be sure to do your own research, seek professional advice, and make your own, well-educated decisions when it comes to financial investments.

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Global Stocks Continue To Rise

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binary options editorial caricature of the Euro 2012 football eventCall Options on rising Stocks and Indices proved to be a winner amongst binary traders yesterday and into the night as a risk on attitude coupled with increased speculation of US stimulus boosted markets.

European stocks received a boost as Spain’s declared intentions not to request bail out money and ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments of ‘watching’ the debt crisis, encouraged a bullish market. The EURO STOXX 50 and France’s CAC 40 both experienced a 2.42% increase with the UK 100 closing 2.36% higher and Germany’s DAX 30 finishing up 2.09%. In the later US trading session, the Dow Jones Index posted its strongest rally for 2012, ending a lively trading session up 2.37%. The S&P 500 index recorded a rise of 2.25%, but the biggest gainer was the Nasdaq Composite index posting a gain of 2.40%. Previously in Asian trading, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.81%.

Europe once again took centre stage with first interest rates remaining unchanged at 1% and then ECB President Draghi effectively keeping the option of supporting ailing economies firmly on the table. Germany, the powerhouse of the Eurozone posted a 2.2% fall in industrial production for the month of April, below the expected 1.0% decline

Yesterday was a good day to be trading Crude Oil following on from its drop to 81.21 on June 4th, the lowest it has been since October 6th, 2011. During the day the price of a barrel was up 2.25% higher trading at 86.27 a barrel, the highest so far this month, Contributing towards its increase was the release of the U.S. government data reporting oil supplies falling less than expected for the week. Whenever there is talk of stimulus measures being implemented, the price of oil goes up and as speculation increases, yesterday proved to be no different

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony will be at the top of everyone’s agenda for Thursday but also expect some increased volatility when initial jobless claims are released in the US and the UK interest rate is announced.

 

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily those of OptionsClick, blog.optionsclick.com, OptionsClick.com or any of its staff. The contents of this article are in no way intended to be advice or any other form of counsel for any trader of binary options or any other investor. Please be advised: Investing of any kind always carries a relative risk. As with any market trading, it is always possible to lose your investment. Always be sure to do your own research, seek professional advice, and make your own, well-educated decisions when it comes to financial investments.

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US and EU data depress markets

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canadian maple spring caricature for the binary options newsFriday saw stocks around the world plunge as investors reacted to the release of negative jobs data into the warm embrace of the precious metals market.

In the U.S., the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a net 69,000 net nonfarm payrolls in May, way below expectations for an increase of around 150,000. April and March jobs figures were revised lower as well with the unemployment rate rising to 8.2% from 8.1%. This sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 2.22% on Friday; the S&P 500 index finished 2.46% lower whilst the Nasdaq Composite index closed down 2.82%. Less than inspiring manufacturing data helped send stocks falling too. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its national factory activity index dropped to 53.5 in May from 54.8 in April, just missing expectations for 53.9.

The weak jobs and tepid manufacturing  data in the US sparked widespread talk the Federal Reserve will consider stimulating the economy via monetary easing to ensure price stability and increase employment conditions.

Over in Europe, unemployment in the eurozone stood at 11% for April, unchanged from March, but still the highest since records began in 1995. Spain, who has been grabbing much of the investor focus and fears, had the highest rate in the eurozone at 24.3%, while Austria had the lowest at 3.9%. A seasonally adjusted total of 17.4 million people were unemployed in the eurozone, up from 17.3 million. In the 27-nation European Union, the jobless rate was 10.3%, up from 10.2%. The rate of unemployment in both France and Italy rose to 10.2%, from 10.1% in March, but Germany bucked the trend, with the rate of unemployment dropping to 5.4% from 5.5% the previous month.

The biggest gainers on Friday ended up being the safe havens Gold and Silver – up 3.93% and 2.59% respectively. However Monday looks like being a volatile day with lower openings predicted in EU stocks, but plenty of profit opportunities for the binary trader.

 

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily those of OptionsClick, blog.optionsclick.com, OptionsClick.com or any of its staff. The contents of this article are in no way intended to be advice or any other form of counsel for any trader of binary options or any other investor. Please be advised: Investing of any kind always carries a relative risk. As with any market trading, it is always possible to lose your investment. Always be sure to do your own research, seek professional advice, and make your own, well-educated decisions when it comes to financial investments.

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